Assumption Parish Alerts
Hurricane Francine Discussion Number 12
Hurricane Francine Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Francine has changed little in intensity during the
last several hours. Flight-level winds from the aircraft
and a northwest eyewall dropsonde suggest that the maximum
sustained surface winds are near 80 kt, and the central pressure is
near 976 mb. The aircraft have been reporting a large elliptical
eye open to the south, which matches the depiction of the eye in
WSR-88D Doppler radar data from Lake Charles. Satellite imagery
does show that the cloud pattern is becoming elongated from
northeast to southwest due to the increasing effects of
southwesterly shear.
The initial motion is now 040/10 kt. A slightly faster northeastward
motion is forecast this afternoon and tonight as the hurricane
becomes steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas. This
will bring the core of Francine toward the Louisiana coast, with
landfall expected within the hurricane warning area late this
afternoon or evening. After landfall, a gradual turn toward the
north will bring the center of Francine across southeastern
Louisiana and southwestern and central Mississippi on Thursday.
After that, a northward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected until the cyclone dissipates. There is little change to
either the track guidance or the track forecast from the previous
advisory.
Due to the increasing shear and the possibility that drier air will
wrap around the south side of the center, little change in strength
is expected before landfall. However, Francine will continue to
pose a significant risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging
winds to locations in the warning areas. Once inland, Francine is
expected to quickly weaken while also losing tropical
characteristics. Transition to an extratropical cyclone is expected
to be complete by Friday morning.
An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge today for the
Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning is
in effect. Residents in the warning area should continue to follow
advice given by local officials.
2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
in portions of southern Louisiana later today, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Ensure you are in a safe location before the
onset of strong winds or possible flooding.
3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding,
across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. Flash and urban
flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower
Mississippi Valley tonight into Friday morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 28.0N 92.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 29.5N 91.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR COAST
24H 12/1200Z 31.8N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 13/0000Z 34.1N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 13/1200Z 35.2N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 14/0000Z 35.7N 90.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/1200Z 0.0S 0.0W 0 KT 0 MPH...DISSIPATED
Hurricane Francine @ 9 p.m.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Francine has changed little in intensity during the
last several hours. Flight-level winds from the aircraft
and a northwest eyewall dropsonde suggest that the maximum
sustained surface winds are near 80 kt, and the central pressure is
near 976 mb. The aircraft have been reporting a large elliptical
eye open to the south, which matches the depiction of the eye in
WSR-88D Doppler radar data from Lake Charles. Satellite imagery
does show that the cloud pattern is becoming elongated from
northeast to southwest due to the increasing effects of
southwesterly shear.
The initial motion is now 040/10 kt. A slightly faster northeastward
motion is forecast this afternoon and tonight as the hurricane
becomes steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas. This
will bring the core of Francine toward the Louisiana coast, with
landfall expected within the hurricane warning area late this
afternoon or evening. After landfall, a gradual turn toward the
north will bring the center of Francine across southeastern
Louisiana and southwestern and central Mississippi on Thursday.
After that, a northward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected until the cyclone dissipates. There is little change to
either the track guidance or the track forecast from the previous
advisory.
Due to the increasing shear and the possibility that drier air will
wrap around the south side of the center, little change in strength
is expected before landfall. However, Francine will continue to
pose a significant risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging
winds to locations in the warning areas. Once inland, Francine is
expected to quickly weaken while also losing tropical
characteristics. Transition to an extratropical cyclone is expected
to be complete by Friday morning.
An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge today for the
Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning is
in effect. Residents in the warning area should continue to follow
advice given by local officials.
2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
in portions of southern Louisiana later today, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Ensure you are in a safe location before the
onset of strong winds or possible flooding.
3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding,
across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. Flash and urban
flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower
Mississippi Valley tonight into Friday morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 28.0N 92.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 29.5N 91.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR COAST
24H 12/1200Z 31.8N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 13/0000Z 34.1N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 13/1200Z 35.2N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 14/0000Z 35.7N 90.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/1200Z 0.0S 0.0W 0 KT 0 MPH...DISSIPATED
Hurricane Francine @ 11:00 a.m.
Hurricane Francine @ 9 p.m.